Most Americans Disapprove of Trump: Here’s Why He May Be Reelected Anyway


A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 64% of Americans want higher taxes on the wealthy. President Trump’s signature accomplishment is the signing of a bill that has actually cut taxes for the wealthy while raising them on the middle class.

So why is it that Trump may be reelected when polls clearly show Americans largely disapprove of him, of his tax policies, and of his stances on many other issues?

There are two basics reasons for Trump’s possible re-election. The first is the structure of the Electoral College, which currently favors Republican candidates and which you can do nothing about — at least in the short term. It would take a Constitutional Amendment to eliminate the Electoral College.

The second is that Americans who support Trump are much more likely to vote. And you can easily do something about this. All those opposed to Trump’s policies have to do is show up to vote on November 3.

Polls show clearly that Americans largely disapprove of Trump. Nate Silver aggregates polls of Trump’s popularity — or, more accurately, his unpopularity. For registered and likely voters, here are FiveThirtyEight’s figures for Trump: 51.9% disapprove and 44.2% approve.

For all adults (even those who aren’t going to vote in a million years), Trump is even more unpopular. His disapproval number is almost a half percentage point higher at 52.3%, and his approval number is almost two points lower at 42.4%.

Even in the best-case scenario for Trump, he is about eight percentage points underwater in his approval ratings.

But even with such dismal numbers, Trump can still win in November. Remember that Hillary Clinton outpaced Trump in the popular vote by almost most 3 million votes: 65.9 million to 63.0 million.

And the 2016 election isn’t an outlier: In four of the last five presidential elections, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote, but only won the presidency twice. In additional to Clinton’s Electoral College loss in 2016, Al Gore received more total votes in 2000 than George W. Bush, who only won the Electoral College after the Supreme Court intervened.

To defeat Trump, those opposed to him and his policies have to turn out in bigger numbers at the ballot box — especially in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, were fewer than 80,000 votes made the difference between the first female president and first whatever kind of president it is that we have now.

Removing Trump will only require changing your habits on November 3. All you have to do is vote. It’s the #EasiestRevolutionEver.

Photo: Matt A.J. 


Leave a Reply